Predicting diurnal outdoor performance and degradation of organic photovoltaics via machine learning; relating degradation to outdoor stress conditions

David, T. W., Amorim Soares, G., Bristow, N., Bagnis, D. and Kettle, J. (2021) Predicting diurnal outdoor performance and degradation of organic photovoltaics via machine learning; relating degradation to outdoor stress conditions. Progress in Photovoltaics, 29(12), pp. 1274-1284. (doi: 10.1002/pip.3453)

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the future performance and remaining useful lifetime of next-generation solar cells such as organic photovoltaics (OPVs) is necessary to drive better designs of materials and ensure reliable system operation. Degradation is multifactorial and difficult to model deterministically; however, with the advent of machine learning, data from outdoor performance monitoring can be used for understanding the relative impact of stress factors and could provide a powerful method to interpret large quantities of outdoor data automatically. Here, we propose the use of artificial neural networks and regression models for forecasting OPV module performance and their degradation as a function of climatic conditions. We demonstrate their predictive capability for short-term energy forecasting of OPV modules, showing that energy yield can be predicted if climatic conditions are known. In addition, the model has been extended so that the impact of climatic conditions on degradation can be predicted. The combined model has been validated on unseen OPV module data and is able to predict energy yield to within 4% accuracy.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Kettle, Professor Jeff
• Authors: David, T. W., Amorim Soares, G., Bristow, N., Bagnis, D., and Kettle, J.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Electronics and Nanoscale Engineering
• Journal Name: Progress in Photovoltaics
• Publisher: Wiley
• ISSN: 1062-7995
• ISSN (Online): 1099-159X
• Published Online: 27 July 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
• First Published: First published in Progress in Photovoltaics 29(12): 1274-1284
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy