Modelling land system evolution and dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in the Luanhe River Basin, China: a scenario analysis of trade-offs and synergies between Sustainable Development Goals

Xu, J. , Renaud, F. G. and Barrett, B. (2021) Modelling land system evolution and dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in the Luanhe River Basin, China: a scenario analysis of trade-offs and synergies between Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability Science, (doi: 10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y) (Early Online Publication)

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Abstract

A more holistic understanding of land use and land cover (LULC) will help minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies, and lead to improved future land use management strategies for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, current assessments of future LULC changes rarely focus on the multiple demands for goods and services, which are related to the synergies and trade-offs between SDGs and their targets. In this study, the land system (combinations of land cover and land use intensity) evolution trajectories of the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), China, and major challenges that the LRB may face in 2030, were explored by applying the CLUMondo and InVEST models. The results indicate that the LRB is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all four scenarios that were explored. The cropland intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend (Trend) scenario compared to those with more planning interventions (Expansion, Sustainability, and Conservation scenarios). Unless the forest area and biodiversity conservation targets are implemented (Conservation scenario), the forest areas are projected to decrease by 2030. The results indicate that water scarcity in the LRB is likely to increase under all scenarios, and the carbon storage will increase under the Conservation scenario but decrease under all other scenarios by 2030. Our methodological framework and findings can guide regional sustainable development in the LRB and other large river basins in China, and will be valuable for policy and planning purposes to the pursuance of SDGs at the sub-national scale.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:Acknowledgements: We acknowledge funding from the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) through the Natural Environment Research Council’s (NERC) Towards a Sustainable Earth (TaSE) programme, for the project “River basins as ‘living laboratories’ for achieving sustainable development goals across national and sub-national scales” (Grant no. NE/S012427/1) on which this research is based.
Status:Early Online Publication
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Renaud, Professor Fabrice and Barrett, Dr Brian and Xu, Dr Jiren
Authors: Xu, J., Renaud, F. G., and Barrett, B.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Geographical and Earth Sciences
College of Social Sciences > School of Interdisciplinary Studies
Journal Name:Sustainability Science
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:1862-4065
ISSN (Online):1862-4057
Published Online:16 July 2021
Copyright Holders:Copyright © Crown 2021
First Published:First published in Sustainability Science 2021
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
304813River basins as 'living laboratories' for achieving sustainable development goals across national and sub-national scalesFabrice RenaudNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)NE/S012427/1IS - Interdisciplinary Studies