Signatures of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis in the first wave of COVID-19: fuel shortages and border migration

Lampo, M., Hernández-Villena, J. V., Cascante, J., Vincenti-González, M. F., Forero-Peña, D. A., Segovia, M. J., Hampson, K. , Castro, J. and Grillet, M. E. (2021) Signatures of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis in the first wave of COVID-19: fuel shortages and border migration. Vaccines, 9(7), 719. (doi: 10.3390/vaccines9070719) (PMID:34358135) (PMCID:PMC8310363)

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Abstract

Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to the population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability that impact population movement. Using a metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the onset of the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil, where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country.

Item Type:Articles
Keywords:SEI models, metapopulations, Venezuela, SARS-CoV-2, drivers of transmission, spatial incidence.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Hampson, Professor Katie
Creator Roles:
Hampson, K.Writing – review and editing
Authors: Lampo, M., Hernández-Villena, J. V., Cascante, J., Vincenti-González, M. F., Forero-Peña, D. A., Segovia, M. J., Hampson, K., Castro, J., and Grillet, M. E.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
Journal Name:Vaccines
Publisher:MDPI
ISSN:2076-393X
ISSN (Online):2076-393X
Published Online:01 July 2021
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2021 The Authors
First Published:First published in Vaccines 9(7): 719
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
165644Hierarchical epidemiology: the spread and persistence of infectious diseases in complex landscapesKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)095787/Z/11/ZInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine