Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates

Read, J. M., Bridgen, J. R. E., Cummings, D. A. T., Ho, A. and Jewell, C. P. (2021) Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376(1829), 20200265. (doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0265) (PMID:34053269) (PMCID:PMC8165596)

Abstract

Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39–4.13), indicating that 58–76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6–7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090–33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: J.M.R. and C.P.J. acknowledge support from the Medical Research Council (MR/5004793/1; MR/V038613/1) and from UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (MR/V038613/1). J.M.R. acknowledges support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N014499/1). J.R.E.B. acknowledges support from the Faculty of Health and Medicine, Lancaster University in the form of a PhD Scholarship. C.P.J. acknowledges support from Wellcome.
• Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, transmission model, pandemic, ascertainment rate, China, international travel.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Ho, Dr Antonia
• Authors: Read, J. M., Bridgen, J. R. E., Cummings, D. A. T., Ho, A., and Jewell, C. P.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity > Centre for Virus Research
• Journal Name: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
• Publisher: The Royal Society
• ISSN: 0962-8436
• ISSN (Online): 1471-2970
• Published Online: 31 May 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 376(1829): 20200265
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License