The impact of Covid-19 on Trump’s electoral demise: the role of economic and democratic accountability

Neundorf, A. and Pardos-Prado, S. (2021) The impact of Covid-19 on Trump’s electoral demise: the role of economic and democratic accountability. Perspectives on Politics, (doi: 10.1017/S1537592721001961) (Early Online Publication)

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Abstract

Did the COVID-19 crisis have a significant effect on Trump’s electoral demise? We present survey experimental evidence on two substantial effects of the pandemic. First, information on the unprecedented economic downturn significantly depressed Trump’s popular support across all partisan groups, and especially among middle-low and low-income respondents. Second, being primed on the poor public health record of the Trump administration reduced its electoral prospects among citizens between 55 and 70 years old. We conclude that the 2020 election was a normal contest compatible with theories of economic voting and political competence. Our results suggest that democratic accountability can be a powerful determinant of the fate of populist leaders once in power.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Early Online Publication
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Neundorf, Professor Anja and Pardos-Prado, Professor Sergi
Authors: Neundorf, A., and Pardos-Prado, S.
College/School:College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
Journal Name:Perspectives on Politics
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
ISSN:1537-5927
ISSN (Online):1541-0986
Published Online:20 August 2021
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2021 The Authors
First Published:First published in Perspectives on Politics 2021
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy

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