Burton, J. K. , McMinn, M. , Vaughan, J. E., Fleuriot, J. and Guthrie, B. (2021) Care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 in Scotland March to May 2020: national linked data cohort analysis. Age and Ageing, 50(5), pp. 1482-1492. (doi: 10.1093/ageing/afab099) (PMID:33963849) (PMCID:PMC8136021)
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Abstract
Background understanding care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 is a key public health priority in the ongoing pandemic to help protect vulnerable residents. Objective to describe all outbreaks of COVID-19 infection in Scottish care-homes for older people between 01/03/2020 to 31/03/2020, with follow-up to 30/06/2020. Design and setting national linked data cohort analysis of Scottish care-homes for older people. Methods data linkage was used to identify outbreaks of COVID-19 in care-homes. Care-home characteristics associated with the presence of an outbreak were examined using logistic regression. Size of outbreaks was modelled using negative binomial regression. Results 334 (41%) Scottish care-homes for older people experienced an outbreak, with heterogeneity in outbreak size (1–63 cases; median = 6) and duration (1–94 days; median = 31.5 days). Four distinct patterns of outbreak were identified: ‘Typical’ (38% of outbreaks, mean 11.2 cases and 48 days duration), Severe (11%, mean 29.7 cases and 60 days), Contained (37%, mean 3.5 cases and 13 days), and Late-onset (14%, mean 5.4 cases and 17 days). Risk of a COVID-19 outbreak increased with increasing care-home size (for ≥90 beds vs <20, adjusted OR = 55.4, 95%CI 15.0–251.7) and rising community prevalence (OR = 1.2 [1.0–1.4] per 100 cases/100,000 population increase). No routinely available care-home characteristic was associated with outbreak size. Conclusions reducing community prevalence of COVID-19 infection is essential to protect those living in care-homes. More systematic national data collection to understand care-home residents and the homes in which they live is a priority in ensuring we can respond more effectively in future.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Burton, Dr Jenni and McMinn, Dr Megan |
Authors: | Burton, J. K., McMinn, M., Vaughan, J. E., Fleuriot, J., and Guthrie, B. |
College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health |
Journal Name: | Age and Ageing |
Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
ISSN: | 0002-0729 |
ISSN (Online): | 1468-2834 |
Published Online: | 08 May 2021 |
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2021 The Authors |
First Published: | First published in Age and Ageing 50(5): 1482-1492 |
Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
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