Assessing multi-hazard vulnerability and dynamic coastal flood risk in the Mississippi Delta: The Global Delta Risk Index as a social-ecological systems approach

Anderson, C. C. , Renaud, F. G. , Hagenlocher, M. and Day, J. W. (2021) Assessing multi-hazard vulnerability and dynamic coastal flood risk in the Mississippi Delta: The Global Delta Risk Index as a social-ecological systems approach. Water, 13(4), e577. (doi: 10.3390/w13040577)

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Abstract

The tight coupling of the social-ecological system (SES) of the Mississippi Delta calls for balanced natural hazard vulnerability and risk assessments. Most existing assessments have approached these components in isolation. To address this, we apply the Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) in the Mississippi Delta at high-resolution census tract level. We assess SES spatial patterns of drought, hurricane-force wind, and coastal flood vulnerability and integrate hazard and exposure data for the assessment of coastal flood risk. Moreover, we compare current coastal flood risk to future risk in 2025 based on the modelled effects of flood depth, exposure, and changes in ecosystem area in the context of ongoing efforts under the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan. Results show that the Master Plan will lead to decreases in risk scores by 2025, but the tracts that are currently the most vulnerable benefit less from risk reduction efforts. Along with our index output, we discuss the need for further advancements in SES methodology and the potential for catastrophic hazard events beyond the model parameters, such as extreme rainfall events and very strong hurricanes. Assessing SES risk components can lead to more targeted policy recommendations, demonstrated by the need for Master Plan projects to consider their unequal spatial effects on vulnerability and risk reduction.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:The research was part of the international Belmont Forum project BF-DELTAS “Catalyzing action toward sustainability of deltaic systems with an integrated modeling framework for risk assessment.” UNU-EHS was funded in part by the German Research Foundation (DFG) (Grant no.RE3554/1-1). The contribution of Carl C. Anderson was supported by a University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences PhD Scholarship.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Anderson, Carl Cyrus and Renaud, Professor Fabrice
Creator Roles:
Anderson, C. C.Conceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing, Visualization
Renaud, F.Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – review and editing, Supervision
Authors: Anderson, C. C., Renaud, F. G., Hagenlocher, M., and Day, J. W.
College/School:College of Social Sciences
College of Social Sciences > School of Interdisciplinary Studies
Journal Name:Water
Publisher:MDPI
ISSN:2073-4441
ISSN (Online):2073-4441
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2021 The Authors
First Published:First published in Water 13(4):577
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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