Agent-based simulation of west asian urban dynamics: impact of refugees

Termos, A., Picascia, S. and Yorke-Smith, N. (2021) Agent-based simulation of west asian urban dynamics: impact of refugees. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 24(1), 2. (doi: 10.18564/jasss.4472)

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Abstract

Rapid international migration of significant populations generates profound implications for countries in West Asia, Europe, and other regions. The motivation of this work is to develop an agent-based model (ABM) to capture the existence of such migrant and refugee flows, and to explore the effects of these flows on urban dynamics. Advances in agent-based modelling have led to theoretically-grounded spatial agent models of urban dynamics, capturing the dynamics of population, property prices, and regeneration. In this article we leverage such an extant agent-based model founded on the rent-gap theory, as a lens to study the effect of sizeable refugee migration upon a capital city in West Asia. In order to calibrate and validate the simulation model we construct indices for housing prices and other factors. Results from the model, implemented in NetLogo, show the impact of migration shock on the housing market, and identify the relative efficacy of housing intervention policies. Our work progresses towards a tool for policy makers asking what-if questions about the urban environment in the context of migration.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:This work was partially funded by the University Research Board of the American University of Beirut under grant number 103183, by the Lebanese National Council for Scientific Research (CNRS-L) under grant number 103290, by the Research Councils UK / Medical Research Council (MRC) under grant numbers MC_UU_12017/10 and MC_UU_12017/14, and by TAILOR, a project funded by EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant number 952215.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Picascia, Dr Stefano
Authors: Termos, A., Picascia, S., and Yorke-Smith, N.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
Journal Name:Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
Publisher:SimSoc Consortium
ISSN:1460-7425
ISSN (Online):1460-7425

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
727621SPHSU Core Renewal: Neighbourhoods and Communities Research ProgrammeAnne EllawayMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12017/10IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU
727661SPHSU Core Renewal: Complexity in Health Improvement Research ProgrammeLaurence MooreMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12017/14IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU