Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

Abbott, B.P. et al. (2020) Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA. Living Reviews in Relativity, 23(1), 3. (doi: 10.1007/s41114-020-00026-9) (PMID:33015351) (PMCID:PMC7520625)

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Abstract

We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 105,106,107 Mpc3 for binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1+12−1(10+52−10) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0+19−0(1+91−1) for neutron star–black hole mergers, and 17+22−11(79+89−44) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:This article is a revised version of https://doi.org/10.1007/s41114-018-0012-9. (Enlighten URL: http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/162287/) Change summary: Major revision, updated and expanded. Change details: Since publication of the previous version (Abbott et al 2018f), several updates to the document have been made. The most significant changes are that we now frame our projections in terms of observing runs, we include final results from O2, and we updated our localization projections to include KAGRA as a fourth detector. Key differences are outlined in the Appendix.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Grant, Mr Alastair and Spencer, Mr Andrew and Pearlstone, Brynley and Robie, Raymond and Messenger, Dr Christopher and Masso Reid, Ms Mariela and Isa, Hafizah Noor Binti and Bell, Dr Angus and Williams, Mr Daniel and Pascucci, Daniela and Toland, Mr Karl and Hayes, Mr Fergus and Hammond, Professor Giles and Barr, Dr Bryan and Sorazu Lucio, Dr Borja and Lee, Kyung Ha and Keitel, David and Barclay, Sheena Elaine and Steinlechner, Dr Jessica and Veitch, Dr John and Heng, Professor Ik Siong and Dupej, Peter and van Veggel, Dr Marielle and Tait, Mr Simon and Briggs, Mr Joseph and Graef, Dr Christian and Zhang, Mr Teng and Hendry, Professor Martin and Scott, Dr Jamie and Mangano, Valentina and Rowan, Professor Sheila and Martin, Dr Iain and Robertson, Professor Norna and Chan, Mr Man Leong and Tornasi, Zeno and Cumming, Dr Alan and Gabbard, Mr Hunter and Cunningham, Dr Liam and Gray, Ms Rachel and Woan, Professor Graham and WRIGHT, Jennifer and Steinlechner, Dr Sebastian and Datrier, Ms Laurence and Hough, Professor James and Huttner, Dr Sabina and FLETCHER, MARK and Bayley, Mr Joseph and Strain, Professor Kenneth and Jones, Mr Russell and Haughian, Dr Karen and Pitkin, Dr Matthew and Murray, Dr Peter and Barton, Dr Mark
Authors: Abbott, B.P., Abbott, R., Abbott, T.D., Abraham, S., Acernese, F., Ackley, K., Adams, C., Adya, V.B., Affeldt, C., Agathos, M., Agatsuma, K., Aggarwal, N., Aguiar, O.D., Aiello, L., Ain, A., Ajith, P., Akutsu, T., Allen, G., Allocca, A., Aloy, M.A., Altin, P.A., Amato, A., Ananyeva, A., Anderson, S.B., Anderson, W.G., Ando, M., Angelova, S.V., Antier, S., Appert, S., Arai, K., Arai, K., Arai, Y., Araki, S., Araya, A., Araya, M.C., Areeda, J.S., Arène, M., Aritomi, N., Arnaud, N., Arun, K.G., Ascenzi, S., Ashton, G., Aso, Y., Aston, S.M., Astone, P., Aubin, F., Aufmuth, P., AultONeal, K., Austin, C., Avendano, V., Avila-Alvarez, A., Babak, S., Bacon, P., Badaracco, F., Bader, M.K.M., Bae, S.W., Bae, Y.B., Baiotti, L., Bajpai, R., Baker, P.T., Baldaccini, F., Ballardin, G., Ballmer, S.W., Banagiri, S., Barayoga, J.C., Barclay, S.E., Barish, B.C., Barker, D., Barkett, K., Barnum, S., Barone, F., Barr, B., Barsotti, L., Barsuglia, M., Barta, D., Bartlett, J., Barton, M.A., Bartos, I., Bassiri, R., Basti, A., Bawaj, M., Bayley, J.C., Bazzan, M., Bécsy, B., Bejger, M., Belahcene, I., Bell, A.S., Beniwal, D., Berger, B.K., Bergmann, G., Bernuzzi, S., Bero, J.J., Berry, C.P.L., Bersanetti, D., Bertolini, A., Betzwieser, J., Bhandare, R., Bidler, J., Bilenko, I.A., Bilgili, S.A., Billingsley, G., Birch, J., Birney, R., Birnholtz, O., Biscans, S., Biscoveanu, S., Bisht, A., Bitossi, M., Bizouard, M.A., Blackburn, J.K., Blair, C.D., Blair, D.G., Blair, R.M., Bloemen, S., Bode, N., Boer, M., Boetzel, Y., Bogaert, G., Bondu, F., Bonilla, E., Bonnand, R., Booker, P., Boom, B.A., Booth, C.D., Bork, R., Boschi, V., Bose, S., Bossie, K., Bossilkov, V., Bosveld, J., Bouffanais, Y., Bozzi, A., Bradaschia, C., Brady, P.R., Bramley, A., Branchesi, M., Brau, J.E., Briant, T., Briggs, J.H., Brighenti, F., Brillet, A., Brinkmann, M., Brisson, V., Brockill, P., Brooks, A.F., Brown, D.A., Brown, D.D., Brunett, S., Buikema, A., Bulik, T., Bulten, H.J., Buonanno, A., Buskulic, D., Buy, C., Byer, R.L., Cabero, M., Cadonati, L., Cagnoli, G., Cahillane, C., Bustillo, J. C., Callister, T.A., Calloni, E., Camp, J.B., Campbell, W.A., Canepa, M., Cannon, K., Cannon, K.C., Cao, H., Cao, J., Capocasa, E., Carbognani, F., Caride, S., Carney, M.F., Carullo, G., Diaz, J. C., Casentini, C., Caudill, S., Cavaglià, M., Cavalier, F., Cavalieri, R., Cella, G., Cerdá-Durán, P., Cerretani, G., Cesarini, E., Chaibi, O., Chakravarti, K., Chamberlin, S.J., Chan, M., Chan, M.L., Chao, S., Charlton, P., Chase, E.A., Chassande-Mottin, E., Chatterjee, D., Chaturvedi, M., Chatziioannou, K., Cheeseboro, B.D., Chen, C.S., Chen, H.Y., Chen, K.H., Chen, X., Chen, Y., Chen, Y.R., Cheng, H.-P., Cheong, C.K., Chia, H.Y., Chincarini, A., Chiummo, A., Cho, G., Cho, H.S., Cho, M., Christensen, N., Chu, H.Y., Chu, Q., Chu, Y.K., Chua, S., Chung, K.W., Chung, S., Ciani, G., Ciobanu, A.A., Ciolfi, R., Cipriano, F., Cirone, A., Clara, F., Clark, J.A., Clearwater, P., Cleva, F., Cocchieri, C., Coccia, E., Cohadon, P.-F., Cohen, D., Colgan, R., Colleoni, M., Collette, C.G., Collins, C., Cominsky, L.R., Constancio, M., Conti, L., Cooper, S.J., Corban, P., Corbitt, T.R., Cordero-Carrión, I., Corley, K.R., Cornish, N., Corsi, A., Cortese, S., Costa, C.A., Cotesta, R., Coughlin, M.W., Coughlin, S.B., Coulon, J.-P., Countryman, S.T., Couvares, P., Covas, P.B., Cowan, E.E., Coward, D.M., Cowart, M.J., Coyne, D.C., Coyne, R., Creighton, J.D.E., Creighton, T.D., Cripe, J., Croquette, M., Crowder, S.G., Cullen, T.J., Cumming, A., Cunningham, L., Cuoco, E., Canton, T. 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Subjects:Q Science > QB Astronomy
Q Science > QC Physics
College/School:College of Science and Engineering
College of Science and Engineering > School of Physics and Astronomy
Research Group:Institute for Gravitational Research
Journal Name:Living Reviews in Relativity
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:1433-8351
ISSN (Online):2367-3613
Published Online:28 September 2020
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2020 The Authors
First Published:First published in Living Reviews in Relativity 23(1):3
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License
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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
173808Investigations in gravitational radiationSheila RowanScience and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)ST/N005422/1P&S - Physics & Astronomy
309290Advanced LIGO Operations SupportKenneth StrainScience and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)ST/V001019/1P&S - Physics & Astronomy