Briefing Note: Post-pandemic mortality dynamics: historical city-level evidence

Angelopoulos, K. , Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R. and Schroeder, M. (2020) Briefing Note: Post-pandemic mortality dynamics: historical city-level evidence. Other. University of Glasgow and Lancaster University.

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Abstract

COVID-19 has been the worst pandemic since the ‘Spanish flu’ of 1918-19, to which it has often been compared at the national and global level. We analysed a long time series of deaths from infectious and non-communicable diseases using detailed archival records for the City of Glasgow to construct a rich dataset of causes of mortality from 1898 to 1972. The archival records confirm that, for Glasgow, the 1918-19 influenza pandemic was the most significant outbreak since the start of the 20th century, that led to an increase in all-cause mortality that, until June 2020, exceeded that of COVID-19. They also demonstrate that the 1918-19 pandemic was followed by a period of heightened volatility in death rates from influenza and related diseases, reflecting more frequent outbreaks, before settling into a regime of smaller fluctuations post-1940. Hence, experience from 1918-19 suggests the potential for a fairly extended period of frequent outbreaks following a pandemic, at least at local scale.

Item Type:Research Reports or Papers (Other)
Status:Published
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Schroeder, Mr Max and Mancy, Dr Rebecca and Lazarakis, Mr Spyridon and Angelopoulos, Dr Konstantinos
Authors: Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., and Schroeder, M.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School
College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics
Publisher:University of Glasgow and Lancaster University
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2020 The Authors
Publisher Policy:Reproduced with the permission of the author

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
311208Assessing policy to address the medium-run impact of COVID-19 on income and health inequality with models informed by the history of disease outbreakKonstantinos AngelopoulosUK Research and Innovation ( UKRI) (UKRI)ES/V005898/1BS - Economics
727621SPHSU Core Renewal: Neighbourhoods and Communities Research ProgrammeAnne EllawayMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12017/10IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU
Chief Scientist Office (CSO)SPHSU10