McCartney, G. , Leyland, A. , Walsh, D. and Dundas, R. (2021) Scaling COVID-19 against inequalities: should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge? Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 75(4), pp. 315-320. (doi: 10.1136/jech-2020-214373) (PMID:33144334) (PMCID:PMC7958082)
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Abstract
Background: The mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public. Methods: We compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations. Results: Mortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of −5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to −0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are −0.25, −0.20 and −3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK. Conclusion: Fully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to ‘build back better’.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | McCartney, Professor Gerard and Leyland, Professor Alastair and Walsh, Dr David and Dundas, Professor Ruth |
Authors: | McCartney, G., Leyland, A., Walsh, D., and Dundas, R. |
College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > General Practice and Primary Care College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Sociology Anthropology and Applied Social Sciences |
Journal Name: | Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health |
Publisher: | BMJ Publishing Group |
ISSN: | 0143-005X |
ISSN (Online): | 1470-2738 |
Published Online: | 03 November 2020 |
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2020 The Authors |
First Published: | First published in Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 75(4): 315-320 |
Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons license |
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