Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow

Li, J., Shi, X. , Chen, Y. D. and Zhang, L. (2020) Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(12), pp. 2043-2056. (doi: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1785625)

Abstract

The conventional abrupt change-based assessments of climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow require the existence of change point(s) and stationarity assumption. However, hydrological conditions may not change abruptly at a certain time, but rather evolve gradually over a period. We propose a trend-based time-varying approach that does not require these prerequisites to assess the climate- and human-induced impacts on hydrological conditions in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, which can be applied in other basins. The trend-based time-varying approach detects human activities exert a significant seasonal regulation on streamflow (i.e. 113% decreases in wet season and 93% increases in dry season) and 101% reductions in flood peaks the East River Basin, the sub-basin with the highest ratio of total reservoir storage capacity to river discharge in the PRB. Climate change contributes to 77% increases in flood peaks in the West River Basin, a large sub-basin with lower flood control levels.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This work was substantially supported by research grants from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [No. HKBU12303517, No. HKBU12302518 and No. CUHK441313], the Faculty Research Grant from Hong Kong Baptist University [No. FRG2/15-16/043], Direct Grant of the Chinese University of Hong Kong [CUHK Direct Grant 4052085].
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Shi, Dr John Xiaogang
• Authors: Li, J., Shi, X., Chen, Y. D., and Zhang, L.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social & Environmental Sustainability
• Journal Name: Hydrological Sciences Journal
• Publisher: Taylor & Francis
• ISSN: 0262-6667
• ISSN (Online): 2150-3435
• Published Online: 22 June 2020
• First Published: First published in Hydrological Sciences Journal 65(12):2043-2056
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy