Prognostic factors in patients admitted to an urban teaching hospital with COVID-19 infection

Maguire, D. et al. (2020) Prognostic factors in patients admitted to an urban teaching hospital with COVID-19 infection. Journal of Translational Medicine, 18, 354. (doi: 10.1186/s12967-020-02524-4) (PMID:32933530) (PMCID:PMC7491021)

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Background: Severe COVID-19 infection results in a systemic inflammatory response (SIRS). This SIRS response shares similarities to the changes observed during the peri-operative period that are recognised to be associated with the development of multiple organ failure. Methods: Electronic patient records for patients who were admitted to an urban teaching hospital during the initial 7-week period of the COVID-19 pandemic in Glasgow, U.K. (17th March 2020—1st May 2020) were examined for routine clinical, laboratory and clinical outcome data. Age, sex, BMI and documented evidence of COVID-19 infection at time of discharge or death certification were considered minimal criteria for inclusion. Results: Of the 224 patients who fulfilled the criteria for inclusion, 52 (23%) had died at 30-days following admission. COVID-19 related respiratory failure (75%) and multiorgan failure (12%) were the commonest causes of death recorded. Age ≥ 70 years (p < 0.001), past medical history of cognitive impairment (p ≤ 0.001), previous delirium (p < 0.001), clinical frailty score > 3 (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.05), heart failure (p < 0.01), national early warning score (NEWS) > 4 (p < 0.01), positive CXR (p < 0.01), and subsequent positive COVID-19 swab (p ≤ 0.001) were associated with 30-day mortality. CRP > 80 mg/L (p < 0.05), albumin < 35 g/L (p < 0.05), peri-operative Glasgow Prognostic Score (poGPS) (p < 0.05), lymphocytes < 1.5 109/l (p < 0.05), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (p ≤ 0.001), haematocrit (< 0.40 L/L (male)/ < 0.37 L/L (female)) (p ≤ 0.01), urea > 7.5 mmol/L (p < 0.001), creatinine > 130 mmol/L (p < 0.05) and elevated urea: albumin ratio (< 0.001) were also associated with 30-day mortality. On multivariate analysis, age ≥ 70 years (O.R. 3.9, 95% C.I. 1.4–8.2, p < 0.001), past medical history of heart failure (O.R. 3.3, 95% C.I. 1.2–19.3, p < 0.05), NEWS > 4 (O.R. 2.4, 95% C.I. 1.1–4.4, p < 0.05), positive initial CXR (O.R. 0.4, 95% C.I. 0.2–0.9, p < 0.05) and poGPS (O.R. 2.3, 95% C.I. 1.1–4.4, p < 0.05) remained independently associated with 30-day mortality. Among those patients who tested PCR COVID-19 positive (n = 122), age ≥ 70 years (O.R. 4.7, 95% C.I. 2.0—11.3, p < 0.001), past medical history of heart failure (O.R. 4.4, 95% C.I. 1.2–20.5, p < 0.05) and poGPS (O.R. 2.4, 95% C.I. 1.1–5.1, p < 0.05) remained independently associated with 30-days mortality. Conclusion: Age ≥ 70 years and severe systemic inflammation as measured by the peri-operative Glasgow Prognostic Score are independently associated with 30-day mortality among patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 infection.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:Funding: DT is funded by the Scottish Trace Elements and Micronutrients Diagnostic and Reference Laboratory. DMcM is funded by the University of Glasgow.
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:McMillan, Professor Donald and Cameron, Dr Allan and Maguire, Donogh and Dolan, Dr Ross and Laird, Dr Barry
Authors: Maguire, D., Woods, M., Richards, C., Dolan, R., Wilson Veitch, J., Sim, W. M.J., Kemmett, O. E.H., Milton, D. C., Randall, S. L.W., Bui, L. D., Goldmann, N., Cameron, A., Laird, B., Talwar, D., Godber, I., Davidson, A., and McMillan, D. C.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection Immunity and Inflammation
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing
Journal Name:Journal of Translational Medicine
Publisher:BioMed Central
ISSN (Online):1479-5876
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2020 The Authors
First Published:First published in Journal of Translational Medicine 18:354
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons Licence

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