A tool for prioritizing livestock disease threats to Scotland

Bessell, P. R., Auty, H. K. , Roberts, H., McKendrick, I. J., Bronsvoort, B. M. d. C. and Boden, L. A. (2020) A tool for prioritizing livestock disease threats to Scotland. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 7, 223. (doi: 10.3389/fvets.2020.00223) (PMID:32391390) (PMCID:PMC7193530)

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Abstract

There are a number of disease threats to the livestock of Scotland that are not presently believed to be circulating in the UK. Here, we present the development of a tool for prioritizing resources for livestock disease threats to Scotland by combining a semi-quantitative model of the chance of introduction of different diseases with a semi-quantitative model of disease impact. Eighteen key diseases were identified and then input into a model framework to produce a semi-quantitative estimate of disease priorities. We estimate this through a model of the potential impacts of the infectious diseases in Scotland that is interpreted alongside a pre-existing generic risk assessment model of the risks of incursion of the diseases. The impact estimates are based on key metrics which influence the practical impact of disease. Metrics included are the rate of spread, the disease mitigation factors, impacts on animal welfare and production, the human health risks and the impacts on wider society. These quantities were adjusted for the size of the Scottish livestock population and were weighted using published scores. Of the 18 livestock diseases included, the model identifies highly pathogenic avian influenza, foot and mouth disease in cattle and bluetongue virus in sheep as having the greatest priority in terms of the combination of chance of introduction and disease impact. Disregarding the weighting for livestock populations and comparing equally between industry sectors, the results demonstrate that Newcastle disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza generally have the greatest potential impact. This model provides valuable information for the veterinary and livestock industries in prioritizing resources in the face of many disease threats. The system can easily be adjusted as disease situations evolve.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:PB, IM, BB, HA, and LB were supported by funding from the Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division, via EPIC, the Scottish Government Center of Expertise in Animal Disease Outbreaks.
Keywords:Livestock, disease, introduction, risk, horizon scanning.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Bessell, Dr Paul and Boden, Dr Lisa and Auty, Harriet and McKendrick, Dr Iain
Authors: Bessell, P. R., Auty, H. K., Roberts, H., McKendrick, I. J., Bronsvoort, B. M. d. C., and Boden, L. A.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
Journal Name:Frontiers in Veterinary Science
Publisher:Frontiers Media
ISSN:2297-1769
ISSN (Online):2297-1769
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2020 Bessell, Auty, Roberts, McKendrick, Bronsvoort and Boden
First Published:First published in Frontiers in Veterinary Science 7: 223
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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