COVID-19: Policy-Options, Effects and Resulting Scenarios

Heuser, B. , Harding, R. and Miller, C. (2020) COVID-19: Policy-Options, Effects and Resulting Scenarios. Other. Coriolis Technologies.

Abstract

Over the coming 11-17 months (until end 2021), governments around the world are faced with the four options of (I) continuing the lockdown until a vaccine is found (estimated at 11-17 months from now), (II) periodic suspension of lockdown measures and their re-imposition until then, (III) a partial suspension of lockdown measures, and (IV) end of all lockdown measures. We estimate that (I) would have unaffordable economic consequences. (II) might be the optimal balance between the most humane treatment of the illness on the one hand (hospitalisation of all needing medical attention) and economic cost, but the economic costs would still be high, and could only be borne with most effective use of opening periods. Given supply chains and interconnectedness with the economies of other countries, this would work effectively only if very closely harmonised with those other countries’ own lockdown periods. (III) would be economically more desirable but would lead to more cases needing hospitalisation than the NHS can cope with. Even this option would be economically more sustainable with close trading and other co-operation with EU countries. (IV) is unacceptable in terms of human suffering caused to infected populations, with the NHS being completely overwhelmed several times over and fatalities in UK alone well into six figures. The prospects of the fiscal and economic recovery of the UK from 2022 depend very much on which of the above options are chosen now and in the coming 6 weeks. Everything else – Britain continuing to take a leading role in the world politically, economically, in defence and security – will flow from that. We sketch three possible resulting scenarios, each of which would set the UK on different courses in the recovery period after the immediate pandemic period.

• Item Type: Research Reports or Papers (Other)
• Additional Information: Paper provided for Ministry of Defence's Development, CDC Think Tank.
• Status: Published
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Miller, Dr Christopher and Heuser, Professor Beatrice
• Authors: Heuser, B., Harding, R., and Miller, C.
• Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General); H Social Sciences > HF Commerce; J Political Science > JA Political science (General); J Political Science > JF Political institutions (General); J Political Science > JZ International relations
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences; College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Economic and Social History
• Publisher: Coriolis Technologies
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2020 Coriolis Technologies
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced with the permission of the Publisher