Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland

Bessell, P. R., Searle, K. R., Auty, H. K. , Handel, I. G., Purse, B. V. and Bronsvoort, B. M. d. C. (2016) Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland. Scientific Reports, 6, 38940. (doi: 10.1038/srep38940) (PMID:27958339) (PMCID:PMC5154200)

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Abstract

Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a “worst case” but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:PRB and HKA, BMdeCB, BVP and KRS are funded by the Scottish Government funded EPIC project. BMdeCB receives support from the BBSRC as part of the RI core strategic funding (BB/J004235/1).
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Auty, Harriet
Authors: Bessell, P. R., Searle, K. R., Auty, H. K., Handel, I. G., Purse, B. V., and Bronsvoort, B. M. d. C.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
Journal Name:Scientific Reports
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:2045-2322
ISSN (Online):2045-2322
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2016 The Authors
First Published:First published in Scientific Reports 6: 38940
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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