Bessell, P. R., Searle, K. R., Auty, H. K. , Handel, I. G., Purse, B. V. and Bronsvoort, B. M. d. C. (2016) Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland. Scientific Reports, 6, 38940. (doi: 10.1038/srep38940) (PMID:27958339) (PMCID:PMC5154200)
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Abstract
Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a “worst case” but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Additional Information: | PRB and HKA, BMdeCB, BVP and KRS are funded by the Scottish Government funded EPIC project. BMdeCB receives support from the BBSRC as part of the RI core strategic funding (BB/J004235/1). |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Auty, Harriet |
Authors: | Bessell, P. R., Searle, K. R., Auty, H. K., Handel, I. G., Purse, B. V., and Bronsvoort, B. M. d. C. |
College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine |
Journal Name: | Scientific Reports |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
ISSN (Online): | 2045-2322 |
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2016 The Authors |
First Published: | First published in Scientific Reports 6: 38940 |
Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
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