Identifying age cohorts responsible for Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus transmission among sheep, goats, and cattle in Northern Tanzania

Herzog, C.M., De Glanville, W.A., Willett, B.J. , Cattadori, I.M., Kapur, V., Hudson, P.J., Buza, J., Swai, E.S., Cleaveland, S. and Bjørnstad, O.N. (2020) Identifying age cohorts responsible for Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus transmission among sheep, goats, and cattle in Northern Tanzania. Viruses, 12(2), e186. (doi: 10.3390/v12020186) (PMID:32046120) (PMCID:PMC7077219)

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Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in global sheep and goat populations. To better control this disease and inform eradication strategies, an improved understanding of how PPRV transmission risk varies by age is needed. Our study used a piece-wise catalytic model to estimate the age-specific force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) among sheep, goats, and cattle from a cross-sectional serosurvey dataset collected in 2016 in Tanzania. Apparent seroprevalence increased with age, reaching 53.6%, 46.8%, and 11.6% (true seroprevalence: 52.7%, 52.8%, 39.2%) for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher among pastoral animals than agropastoral animals across all ages, with pastoral sheep and goat seroprevalence approaching 70% and 80%, respectively, suggesting pastoral endemicity. The best fitting piece-wise catalytic models merged age groups: two for sheep, three for goats, and four for cattle. The signal of these age heterogeneities were weak, except for a significant FOI peak among 2.5−3.5-year-old pastoral cattle. The subtle age-specific heterogeneities identified in this study suggest that targeting control efforts by age may not be as effective as targeting by other risk factors, such as production system type. Further research should investigate how specific husbandry practices affect PPRV transmission.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:(This article belongs to the Special Issue Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication: Improved Understanding of Epidemiology, Diagnostics and Vaccine Efficacy). Funding: C. M. H. was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant ‘Programme For Enhancing the Health and Productivity of Livestock (PEHPL)’ (OPP1083453). Additional funding for data collection was provided to SC, WdG by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, the Department for International Development, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the Natural Environment Research Council and the Defense Science & Technology Laboratory, under the Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems (ZELS) programme (BB/L018926/1). BJW was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council.
Keywords:Epidemiology, peste-des-petits-ruminants, seroepidemiologic studies, Tanzania, force of infection, catalytic model.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Willett, Professor Brian and De Glanville, Dr William and Cleaveland, Professor Sarah
Creator Roles:
De Glanville, W.Data curation, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Writing – review and editing
Willett, B.Data curation, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing – review and editing
Cleaveland, S.Data curation, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Resources, Writing – review and editing
Authors: Herzog, C.M., De Glanville, W.A., Willett, B.J., Cattadori, I.M., Kapur, V., Hudson, P.J., Buza, J., Swai, E.S., Cleaveland, S., and Bjørnstad, O.N.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection Immunity and Inflammation
Journal Name:Viruses
Publisher:MDPI
ISSN:1999-4915
ISSN (Online):Viruses
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2020 The Authors
First Published:First published in Viruses 12(2):e186
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
190825Social, economic and environmental drivers of zoonoses in Tanzania (SEEDZ)Sarah CleavelandBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)BB/L018926/1Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine