Cobbold, C. A. and Stana, R. (2020) Should I stay or should I go: partially sedentary populations can outperform fully dispersing populations in response to climate-induced range shifts. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 82, 26. (doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00700-7) (PMID:32006139) (PMCID:PMC6994560)
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Abstract
Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.72 ∘C since the 1950s, and climate warming is resulting in geographical shifts in the range limits of many species. Climate velocity is estimated to be 0.42 km/year, and if a species fails to adapt to the new climate, it must track the location of its climatically constrained niche in order to survive. Dispersal has an important role to play in enabling a population to shift is geographical range limits, but many species are partially sedentary, with only a fraction of the population dispersing each year. We ask, can partially sedentary populations keep pace with climate or will such populations be more vulnerable to extinction? Through the development of a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model, we show that, provided climate velocity is not too large, partially sedentary populations can outperform fully dispersing populations in one of two ways: (i) by persisting at climate speeds where a fully dispersing population cannot, and (ii) exhibiting higher population densities. Moreover, we find that positive density-dependent dispersal can further improve the likelihood a population can persist. Our results highlight the positive role that non-dispersers may play in mitigating the effects of overdispersal and facilitating population persistence in a warming world.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Cobbold, Professor Christina |
| Authors: | Cobbold, C. A., and Stana, R. |
| College/School: | College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Mathematics |
| Journal Name: | Bulletin of Mathematical Biology |
| Publisher: | Springer |
| ISSN: | 0092-8240 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1522-9602 |
| Published Online: | 31 January 2020 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2020 The Authors |
| First Published: | First published in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 82:26 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence |
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