Virus-virus interactions impact the population dynamics of influenza and the common cold

Nickbakhsh, S. et al. (2019) Virus-virus interactions impact the population dynamics of influenza and the common cold. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(52), pp. 27142-27150. (doi: 10.1073/pnas.1911083116) (PMID:31843887) (PMCID:PMC6936719)

[img]
Preview
Text
203220.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

991kB

Abstract

The human respiratory tract hosts a diverse community of cocirculating viruses that are responsible for acute respiratory infections. This shared niche provides the opportunity for virus–virus interactions which have the potential to affect individual infection risks and in turn influence dynamics of infection at population scales. However, quantitative evidence for interactions has lacked suitable data and appropriate analytical tools. Here, we expose and quantify interactions among respiratory viruses using bespoke analyses of infection time series at the population scale and coinfections at the individual host scale. We analyzed diagnostic data from 44,230 cases of respiratory illness that were tested for 11 taxonomically broad groups of respiratory viruses over 9 y. Key to our analyses was accounting for alternative drivers of correlated infection frequency, such as age and seasonal dependencies in infection risk, allowing us to obtain strong support for the existence of negative interactions between influenza and noninfluenza viruses and positive interactions among noninfluenza viruses. In mathematical simulations that mimic 2-pathogen dynamics, we show that transient immune-mediated interference can cause a relatively ubiquitous common cold-like virus to diminish during peak activity of a seasonal virus, supporting the potential role of innate immunity in driving the asynchronous circulation of influenza A and rhinovirus. These findings have important implications for understanding the linked epidemiological dynamics of viral respiratory infections, an important step towards improved accuracy of disease forecasting models and evaluation of disease control interventions.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:McMenamin, Dr Jim and Johnson, Dr Paul and Gunson, Dr Rory and Thorburn, Dr Fiona and Von Wissmann, Dr Beatrix and Matthews, Professor Louise and Mair, Dr Colette and Reynolds, Dr Arlene and Nickbakhsh, Dr Sema and Reeve, Dr Richard and Murcia, Dr Pablo
Authors: Nickbakhsh, S., Mair, C., Matthews, L., Reeve, R., Johnson, P.C.D., Thorburn, F., Von Wissmann, B., Reynolds, A., McMenamin, J., Gunson, R.N., and Murcia, P.R.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Public Health
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection Immunity and Inflammation
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing
College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
Journal Name:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Publisher:National Academy of Sciences
ISSN:0027-8424
ISSN (Online):1091-6490
Published Online:16 December 2019
First Published:First published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116(52):27142-27150
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons license

University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record

Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
172630Quinquennial Core FundsMassimo PalmariniMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12014/9III-MRC-GU CVR Support Services
190643Ecological and socioeconomic factors impacting maintenance and dissemination of antibiotic resistance in the Greater Serengeti EcosystemLouise MatthewsBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)BB/K01126X/1Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
190825Social, economic and environmental drivers of zoonoses in Tanzania (SEEDZ)Sarah CleavelandBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)BB/L018926/1Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
171417An effective vaccination programme for the eradication of foot-and-mouth disease from IndiaRichard ReeveBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)BB/L004828/1 1805Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine