Streicker, D. G. , Fallas González, S. L., Luconi, G., González Barrientos, R. and Leon, B. (2019) Phylodynamics reveals extinction-recolonization dynamics underpin apparently endemic vampire bat rabies in Costa Rica. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 286(1912), 20191527. (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2019.1527) (PMID:31594511) (PMCID:PMC6790760)
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Abstract
Variation in disease incidence in wildlife is often assumed to reflect environmental or demographic changes acting on an endemic pathogen. However, apparent endemicity might instead arise from spatial processes that are challenging to identify from traditional data sources including time series and field studies. Here, we analysed longitudinal sequence data collected from rabies virus outbreaks over 14 years in Costa Rica, a Central American country that has recorded continuous vampire bat-transmitted rabies outbreaks in humans and livestock since 1985. We identified five phylogenetically distinct lineages which shared most recent common ancestors with viruses from North and South America. Bayesian phylogeographic reconstructions supported bidirectional viral dispersals involving countries to the north and south of Costa Rica at different time points. Within Costa Rica, viruses showed little contemporaneous spatial overlap and no lineage was detected across all years of surveillance. Statistical models suggested that lineage disappearances were more likely to be explained by viral extinctions than undetected viral circulation. Our results highlight the importance of international viral dispersal for shaping the burden of rabies in Costa Rica, suggest a Central American corridor of rabies virus invasions between continents, and show that apparent disease endemicity may arise through recurrent pathogen extinctions and reinvasions which can be readily detected in relatively small datasets by joining phylodynamic and modelling approaches.
| Item Type: | Articles |
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| Additional Information: | This study was funded by SENASA-Costa Rica. DGS was supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship, jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society (102507/Z/13/Z). |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Streicker, Professor Daniel |
| Authors: | Streicker, D. G., Fallas González, S. L., Luconi, G., González Barrientos, R., and Leon, B. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine |
| Journal Name: | Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences |
| Publisher: | The Royal Society |
| ISSN: | 0962-8452 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1471-2954 |
| Published Online: | 09 October 2019 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2019 The Authors |
| First Published: | First published in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences 286(1912):20191527 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
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