Hurford, A., Cobbold, C. A. and Molnár, P. K. (2019) Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 286(1908), 20191157. (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2019.1157) (PMID:31387510) (PMCID:PMC6710591)
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Abstract
Population growth metrics such as R0 are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species's fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density and dispersal, may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only in R0 may be misleading.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Cobbold, Professor Christina |
Authors: | Hurford, A., Cobbold, C. A., and Molnár, P. K. |
College/School: | College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Mathematics |
Journal Name: | Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences |
Publisher: | The Royal Society |
ISSN: | 0962-8452 |
ISSN (Online): | 1471-2954 |
Published Online: | 07 August 2019 |
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2019 The Authors |
First Published: | First published in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences 286(1908):20191157 |
Publisher Policy: | Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy |
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