Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle

Herzog, C.M., de Glanville, W.A., Willett, B.J. , Kibona, T.J., Cattadori, I.M., Kapur, V., Hudson, P.J., Buza, J., Cleaveland, S. and Bjørnstad, O.N. (2019) Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle. Epidemiology and Infection, 147, e242. (doi: 10.1017/S0950268819001262)

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Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1–22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0–6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3–32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R0) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32–1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37–1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11–1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59–0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:C. M. H. was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant ‘Programme For Enhancing the Health and Productivity of Livestock (PEHPL)’ (OPP1083453). Additional funding for this study was provided by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, the Department for International Development, the Economic & Social Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the Natural Environment Research Council and the Defense Science & Technology Laboratory, under the Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems (ZELS) programme (BB/L018926/1).
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Willett, Professor Brian and De Glanville, Dr Will and Cleaveland, Professor Sarah
Authors: Herzog, C.M., de Glanville, W.A., Willett, B.J., Kibona, T.J., Cattadori, I.M., Kapur, V., Hudson, P.J., Buza, J., Cleaveland, S., and Bjørnstad, O.N.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection Immunity and Inflammation
Journal Name:Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
ISSN:0950-2688
ISSN (Online):1469-4409
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2019 The Authors
First Published:First published in Epidemiology and Infection 147:e242
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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