Comparison of conventional lipoprotein tests and apolipoproteins in the prediction of cardiovascular disease: data from UK Biobank

Welsh, C. et al. (2019) Comparison of conventional lipoprotein tests and apolipoproteins in the prediction of cardiovascular disease: data from UK Biobank. Circulation, 140(7), pp. 542-552. (doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.119.041149) (PMID:31216866) (PMCID:PMC6693929)

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Abstract

Background: Total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) measurements are central to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, but there is continuing debate around the utility of other lipids for risk prediction. Methods: Participants from UK Biobank without baseline CVD and not taking statins, with relevant lipid measurements (n=346 686), were included in the primary analysis. An incident fatal or nonfatal CVD event occurred in 6216 participants (1656 fatal) over a median of 8.9 years. Associations of nonfasting lipid measurements (total cholesterol, HDL-C, non–HDL-C, direct and calculated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and apolipoproteins [Apo] A1 and B) with CVD were compared using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors, and predictive utility was determined by the C-index and net reclassification index. Prediction was also tested in 68 649 participants taking a statin with or without baseline CVD (3515 CVD events). Results: ApoB, LDL-C, and non–HDL-C were highly correlated (r>0.90), while HDL-C was strongly correlated with ApoA1 (r=0.92). After adjustment for classical risk factors, 1 SD increase in ApoB, direct LDL-C, and non–HDL-C had similar associations with composite fatal/nonfatal CVD events (hazard ratio, 1.23, 1.20, 1.21, respectively). Associations for 1 SD increase in HDL-C and ApoA1 were also similar (hazard ratios, 0.81 [both]). Adding either total cholesterol and HDL-C, or ApoB and ApoA, to a CVD risk prediction model (C-index, 0.7378) yielded similar improvement in discrimination (C-index change, 0.0084; 95% CI, 0.0065, 0.0104, and 0.0089; 95% CI, 0.0069, 0.0109, respectively). Once total and HDL-C were in the model, no further substantive improvement was achieved with the addition of ApoB (C-index change, 0.0004; 95% CI, 0.0000, 0.0008) or any measure of LDL-C. Results for predictive utility were similar for a fatal CVD outcome, and in a discordance analysis. In participants taking a statin, classical risk factors (C-index, 0.7118) were improved by non–HDL-C (C-index change, 0.0030; 95% CI, 0.0012, 0.0048) or ApoB (C-index change, 0.0030; 95% CI, 0.0011, 0.0048). However, adding ApoB or LDL-C to a model already containing non–HDL-C did not further improve discrimination. Conclusions: Measurement of total cholesterol and HDL-C in the nonfasted state is sufficient to capture the lipid-associated risk in CVD prediction, with no meaningful improvement from addition of apolipoproteins, direct or calculated LDL-C.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Gill, Professor Jason and Ferguson, Dr Lyn and Brown, Miss Rosemary and Mark, Dr Patrick and Welsh, Dr Paul and Anderson, Dr Jana and Lewsey, Professor Jim and Celis, Dr Carlos and Gray, Dr Stuart and Jhund, Dr Pardeep and Pell, Professor Jill and Mackay, Professor Daniel and Cleland, Professor John and Sattar, Professor Naveed and Welsh, Dr Claire and Lyall, Dr Donald
Authors: Welsh, C., Celis-Morales, C. A., Brown, R., Mackay, D. F., Lewsey, J., Mark, P. B., Gray, S. R., Ferguson, L. D., Anderson, J. J., Lyall, D. M., Cleland, J. G., Jhund, P. S., Gill, J. M.R., Pell, J. P., Sattar, N., and Welsh, P.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Public Health
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Robertson Centre
Journal Name:Circulation
Publisher:American Heart Association
ISSN:0009-7322
ISSN (Online):1524-4539
Published Online:20 June 2019
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2019 The Authors
First Published:First published in Circulation 140(7): 542-552
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
720611Associations of blood biomarkers with cardiovascular disease and related cardiometabolic outcomes and risk prediction in the clinical setting: UK biobankNaveed SattarChest Heart & Stroke Scotland (CHSS)Res16/A/165RI CARDIOVASCULAR & MEDICAL SCIENCES
3040050MRC Precision Medicine Training GrantMorven BarlassMedical Research Council (MRC)MR/N013166/1-LGH/MS/MED25CAMS - Cardiovascular Science