A systematic review and quality assessment of individualised breast cancer risk prediction models

Louro, J., Posso, M., Hilton Boon, M. , Román, M., Domingo, L., Castells, X. and Sala, M. (2019) A systematic review and quality assessment of individualised breast cancer risk prediction models. British Journal of Cancer, 121(1), pp. 76-85. (doi:10.1038/s41416-019-0476-8) (PMID:31114019) (PMCID:PMC6738106)

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Abstract

Background: Individualised breast cancer risk prediction models may be key for planning risk-based screening approaches. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review and quality assessment of these models addressed to women in the general population. Methods: We followed the Cochrane Collaboration methods searching in Medline, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases up to February 2018. We included studies reporting a model to estimate the individualised risk of breast cancer in women in the general population. Study quality was assessed by two independent reviewers. Results are narratively summarised. Results: We included 24 studies out of the 2976 citations initially retrieved. Twenty studies were based on four models, the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT), the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC), the Rosner & Colditz model, and the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS), whereas four studies addressed other original models. Four of the studies included genetic information. The quality of the studies was moderate with some limitations in the discriminative power and data inputs. A maximum AUROC value of 0.71 was reported in the study conducted in a screening context. Conclusion: Individualised risk prediction models are promising tools for implementing risk-based screening policies. However, it is a challenge to recommend any of them since they need further improvement in their quality and discriminatory capacity.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Hilton Boon, Dr Michele
Authors: Louro, J., Posso, M., Hilton Boon, M., Román, M., Domingo, L., Castells, X., and Sala, M.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
Journal Name:British Journal of Cancer
Publisher:Springer Nature
ISSN:0007-0920
ISSN (Online):1532-1827
Published Online:22 May 2019
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2019 The Authors
First Published:First published in British Journal of Cancer 121(1): 76-85
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
727671SPHSU Core Renewal: Informing Healthy Public Policy Research ProgrammePeter CraigMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12017/15IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU
SPHSU15
727651SPHSU Core Renewal: Measuring and Analysing Socioeconomic Inequalities in Health Research ProgrammeAlastair LeylandMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12017/13IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU

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