Evaluating the impact of lowering blood alcohol concentration limits for drivers on road traffic accident rates and alcohol consumption: a natural experiment

Haghpanahan, H. , Lewsey, J. , Mackay, D. F. , McIntosh, E. , Pell, J. , Jones, A., Fitzgerald, N. and Robinson, M. (2019) Evaluating the impact of lowering blood alcohol concentration limits for drivers on road traffic accident rates and alcohol consumption: a natural experiment. Lancet, 393(10169), pp. 321-329. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32850-2) (PMID:30553498) (PMCID:PMC6346081)

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Abstract

Background: Drink driving is an important risk factor for road traffic accidents (RTAs), which cause high levels of morbidity and mortality globally. Lowering the permitted blood alcohol concentration (BAC) for drivers is a common public health intervention that is enacted in countries and jurisdictions across the world. In Scotland, on Dec 5, 2014, the BAC limit for drivers was reduced from 0·08 g/dL to 0·05 g/dL. We therefore aimed to evaluate the effects of this change on RTAs and alcohol consumption. Methods: In this natural experiment, we used an observational, comparative interrupted time-series design by use of data on RTAs and alcohol consumption in Scotland (the interventional group) and England and Wales (the control group). We obtained weekly counts of RTAs from police accident records and we estimated weekly off-trade (eg, in supermarkets and convenience stores) and 4-weekly on-trade (eg, in bars and restaurants) alcohol consumption from market research data. We also used data from automated traffic counters as denominators to calculate RTA rates. We estimated the effect of the intervention on RTAs by use of negative binomial panel regression and on alcohol consumption outcomes by use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. Our primary outcome was weekly rates of RTAs in Scotland, England, and Wales. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN38602189. Findings: We assessed the weekly rate of RTAs and alcohol consumption between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2016, before and after the BAC limit came into effect on Dec 5, 2014. After the reduction in BAC limits for drivers in Scotland, we found no significant change in weekly RTA rates after adjustment for seasonality and underlying temporal trend (rate ratio 1·01, 95% CI 0·94–1·08; p=0.77) or after adjustment for seasonality, the underlying temporal trend, and the driver characteristics of age, sex, and socioeconomic deprivation (1·00, 0·96–1·06; p=0·73). Relative to RTAs in England and Wales, where the reduction in BAC limit for drivers did not occur, we found a 7% increase in weekly RTA rates in Scotland after this reduction in BAC limit for drivers (1·07, 1·02–1·13; p=0·007 in the fully-adjusted model). Similar findings were observed for serious or fatal RTAs and single-vehicle night-time RTAs. The change in legislation in Scotland was associated with no change in alcohol consumption, measured by per-capita off-trade sales (−0·3%, −1·7 to 1·1; p=0·71), but a 0·7% decrease in alcohol consumption measured by per-capita on-trade sales (−0·7%, −0·8 to −0·5; p<0·0001). Interpretation: Lowering the driving BAC limit to 0·05 g/dL from 0·08 g/dL in Scotland was not associated with a reduction in RTAs, but this change was associated with a small reduction in per-capita alcohol consumption from on-trade alcohol sales. One plausible explanation is that the legislative change was not suitably enforced—for example with random breath testing measures. Our findings suggest that changing the legal BAC limit for drivers in isolation does not improve RTA outcomes. These findings have significant policy implications internationally as several countries and jurisdictions consider a similar reduction in the BAC limit for drivers. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research Programme.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Pell, Professor Jill and Haghpanahan, Dr Houra and Mackay, Dr Daniel and Lewsey, Professor James and McIntosh, Professor Emma
Authors: Haghpanahan, H., Lewsey, J., Mackay, D. F., McIntosh, E., Pell, J., Jones, A., Fitzgerald, N., and Robinson, M.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Public Health
Journal Name:Lancet
Publisher:The Lancet Publishing Group
ISSN:0140-6736
ISSN (Online):1474-547X
Published Online:12 December 2018
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2018 The Authors
First Published:First published in Lancet 393(10169): 321-329
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License
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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
686641Evaluation of legislation to reduce the drink drive limit in Scotland: a natural experimentJames LewseyNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR)14/186/58IHW - HEALTH ECON & TECH ASSESSMENT