A re-examination of “bias” in human randomness perception

Warren, P. A., Gostoli, U. , Farmer, G. D., El-Deredy, W. and Hahn, U. (2018) A re-examination of “bias” in human randomness perception. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 44(5), pp. 663-680. (doi: 10.1037/xhp0000462) (PMID:29058943) (PMCID:PMC5933241)

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Abstract

Human randomness perception is commonly described as biased. This is because when generating random sequences humans tend to systematically under- and overrepresent certain subsequences relative to the number expected from an unbiased random process. In a purely theoretical analysis we have previously suggested that common misperceptions of randomness may actually reflect genuine aspects of the statistical environment, once cognitive constraints are taken into account which impact on how that environment is actually experienced (Hahn & Warren, Psychological Review, 2009). In the present study we undertake an empirical test of this account, comparing human-generated against unbiased process-generated binary sequences in two experiments. We suggest that comparing human and theoretically unbiased sequences using metrics reflecting the constraints imposed on human experience provides a more meaningful picture of lay people’s ability to perceive randomness. Finally, we propose a simple generative model of human random sequence generation inspired by the Hahn and Warren account. Taken together our results question the notion of bias in human randomness perception.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Gostoli, Dr Umberto
Authors: Warren, P. A., Gostoli, U., Farmer, G. D., El-Deredy, W., and Hahn, U.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
Journal Name:Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
Publisher:American Psychological Association
ISSN:0096-1523
ISSN (Online):1939-1277
Published Online:23 October 2017
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2017 The Authors
First Published:First published in Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 44(5):663-680
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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