Identifying genotype specific elevated-risk areas and associated herd risk factors for bovine tuberculosis spread in British cattle

Orton, R.J. , Deason, M., Bessell, P.R., Green, D.M., Kao, R.R. and Salvador, L.C.M. (2018) Identifying genotype specific elevated-risk areas and associated herd risk factors for bovine tuberculosis spread in British cattle. Epidemics, 24, pp. 34-42. (doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.02.004) (PMID:29548927) (PMCID:PMC6105618)

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Abstract

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic zoonosis with major health and economic impact on the cattle industry. Despite extensive control measures in cattle and culling trials in wildlife, the reasons behind the expansion of areas with high incidence of bTB breakdowns in Great Britain remain unexplained. By balancing the importance of cattle movements and local transmission on the observed pattern of cattle outbreaks, we identify areas at elevated risk of infection from specific Mycobacterium bovis genotypes. We show that elevated-risk areas (ERAs) were historically more extensive than previously understood, and that cattle movements alone are insufficient for ERA spread, suggesting the involvement of other factors. For all genotypes, we find that, while the absolute risk of infection is higher in ERAs compared to areas with intermittent risk, the statistically significant risk factors are remarkably similar in both, suggesting that these risk factors can be used to identify incipient ERAs before this is indicated by elevated incidence alone. Our findings identify research priorities for understanding bTB dynamics, improving surveillance and guiding management to prevent further ERA expansion.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Kao, Professor Rowland and Deason, Dr Michael and Salvador, Dr Liliana and Orton, Dr Richard
Authors: Orton, R.J., Deason, M., Bessell, P.R., Green, D.M., Kao, R.R., and Salvador, L.C.M.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
Journal Name:Epidemics
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1755-4365
ISSN (Online):1878-0067
Published Online:01 March 2018
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2018 The Authors
First Published:First published in Epidemics 24: 34-42
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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