Multivariate space-time modelling of multiple air pollutants and their health effects accounting for exposure uncertainty

Huang, G., Lee, D. and Scott, E. M. (2018) Multivariate space-time modelling of multiple air pollutants and their health effects accounting for exposure uncertainty. Statistics in Medicine, 37(7), pp. 1134-1148. (doi:10.1002/sim.7570)

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Abstract

The long-term health effects of air pollution are often estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological areal unit study, but this design leads to the following statistical challenges: (1) how to estimate spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit; (2) how to allow for the uncertainty in these estimated concentrations when estimating their health effects; and (3) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple correlated pollutants. This article proposes a novel 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for addressing these 3 challenges, with inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The first stage is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model for predicting areal level average concentrations of multiple pollutants from both monitored and modelled pollution data. The second stage is a spatio-temporal model for estimating the health impact of multiple correlated pollutants simultaneously, which accounts for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations. The novel methodology is motivated by a new study of the impact of both particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in Scotland between 2007 and 2011, and the results suggest that both pollutants exhibit substantial and independent health effects.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Lee, Professor Duncan and Huang, Guowen and Scott, Professor E Marian
Authors: Huang, G., Lee, D., and Scott, E. M.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
Journal Name:Statistics in Medicine
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:0277-6715
ISSN (Online):1097-0258
Published Online:04 December 2017
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2017 The Authors
First Published:First published in Statistics in Medicine 37(7):1134-1148
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
588351A rigorous statistical framework for estimating the long-term health effects of air pollution.Duncan LeeEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)EP/J017442/1M&S - STATISTICS