Genetic risk prediction of atrial fibrillation

Lubitz, S. A. et al. (2017) Genetic risk prediction of atrial fibrillation. Circulation, 135(14), pp. 1311-1320. (doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.116.024143) (PMID:27793994)

137005.pdf - Accepted Version



Background—Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a substantial genetic basis. Identification of individuals at greatest AF risk could minimize the incidence of cardioembolic stroke. Methods—To determine whether genetic data can stratify risk for development of AF, we examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and incident AF in five prospective studies comprising 18,919 individuals of European ancestry. We examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and ischemic stroke in a separate study of 509 ischemic stroke cases (202 cardioembolic [40%]) and 3,028 referents. Scores were based on 11 to 719 common variants (≥5%) associated with AF at P-values ranging from <1x10-3 to <1x10-8 in a prior independent genetic association study. Results—Incident AF occurred in 1,032 (5.5%) individuals. AF genetic risk scores were associated with new-onset AF after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The pooled hazard ratio for incident AF for the highest versus lowest quartile of genetic risk scores ranged from 1.28 (719 variants; 95%CI, 1.13-1.46; P=1.5x10-4) to 1.67 (25 variants; 95%CI, 1.47-1.90; P=9.3x10-15). Discrimination of combined clinical and genetic risk scores varied across studies and scores (maximum C statistic, 0.629-0.811; maximum ΔC statistic from clinical score alone, 0.009-0.017). AF genetic risk was associated with stroke in age- and sex-adjusted models. For example, individuals in the highest versus lowest quartile of a 127-variant score had a 2.49-fold increased odds of cardioembolic stroke (95%CI, 1.39-4.58; P=2.7x10-3). The effect persisted after excluding individuals (n=70) with known AF (odds ratio, 2.25; 95%CI, 1.20-4.40; P=0.01). Conclusions—Comprehensive AF genetic risk scores were associated with incident AF beyond associations for clinical AF risk factors, though offered small improvements in discrimination. AF genetic risk was also associated with cardioembolic stroke in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Efforts are warranted to determine whether AF genetic risk may improve identification of subclinical AF or help distinguish between stroke mechanisms.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Macfarlane, Professor Peter and Ford, Professor Ian
Authors: Lubitz, S. A., Yin, X., Lin, H., Kolek, M., Smith, J. G., Trompet, S., Rienstra, M., Rost, N. S., Teixeira, P., Almgren, P., Anderson, C. D., Chen, L. Y., Engström, G., Ford, I., Furie, K. L., Guo, X., Larson, M. G., Lunetta, K., Macfarlane, P. W., Psaty, B. M., Soliman, E. Z., Sotoodehnia, N., Stott, D. J., Taylor, K. D., Weng, L.-C., Yao, J., Geelhoed, B., Verweij, N., Siland, J. E., Kathiresan, S., Roselli, C., Roden, D. M., van der Harst, P., Darbar, D., Jukema, J. W., Melander, O., Rosand, J., Rotter, J. I., Heckbert, S. R., Ellinor, P. T., Alonso, A., and Benjamin, E. J.
Subjects:R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Robertson Centre
Journal Name:Circulation
Publisher:American Heart Association
ISSN (Online):1524-4539
Published Online:28 October 2016
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2016 American Heart Association Inc.
First Published:First published in Circulation 2016
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy

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