The basic reproduction number for scrapie

Matthews, L. , Woolhouse, M. E. J. and Hunter, N. (1999) The basic reproduction number for scrapie. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 266(1423), pp. 1085-1090. (doi:10.1098/rspb.1999.0747) (PMCID:PMC1689932)

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Abstract

The basic reproduction number RR0; population genetics; control; epidemiology; inbreeding;transmissible spongiform encephalopathy provides a quantitative assessment of the ability of an infectious agent to invade a susceptible host population. A mathematical expression for R0 is derived based on a recently developed model for the spread of scrapie through a flock of sheep. The model incorporates sheep demography, a long and variable incubation period, genetic variation in susceptibility to scrapie, and horizontal and vertical routes of transmission. The sensitivity of R0 to a range of epidemiologically important parameters is assessed and the effects of genetic variation in susceptibility are examined. A reduction in the frequency of the susceptibility allele reduces R0 most effectively when the allele is recessive, whereas inbreeding may increase R0 when the allele is recessive, increasing the chance of an outbreak. Using this formulation, R0 is calculated for an outbreak of scrapie in a flock of Cheviot sheep.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Matthews, Professor Louise
Authors: Matthews, L., Woolhouse, M. E. J., and Hunter, N.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
Journal Name:Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences
Publisher:The Royal Society
ISSN:0962-8452
ISSN (Online):1471-2954

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