Enright, J. and Kao, R. (2016) A fast algorithm for calculating an expected outbreak size on dynamic contagion networks. Epidemics, 16, pp. 56-62. (doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.002) (PMID:27379615)
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Abstract
Calculation of expected outbreak size of a simple contagion on a known contact network is a common and important epidemiological task, and is typically carried out by computationally intensive simulation. We describe an efficient exact method to calculate the expected outbreak size of a contagion on an outbreak-invariant network that is a directed and acyclic, allowing us to model all dynamically changing networks when contagion can only travel forward in time. We describe our algorithm and its use in pseudocode, as well as showing examples of its use on disease relevant, data-derived networks.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Additional Information: | The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the Scottish Government as part of EPIC: Scotland’s Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks. |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Kao, Professor Rowland and Enright, Dr Jessica |
Authors: | Enright, J., and Kao, R. |
College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine |
Journal Name: | Epidemics |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
ISSN: | 1755-4365 |
ISSN (Online): | 1878-0067 |
Published Online: | 24 May 2016 |
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2016 The Authors |
First Published: | First published in Epidemics 16:56-62 |
Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
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