The impact of prior information on estimates of disease transmissibility using Bayesian tools

Moser, C. B., Gupta, M. , Archer, B. N. and White, L. F. (2015) The impact of prior information on estimates of disease transmissibility using Bayesian tools. PLoS ONE, 10(3), e0118762. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118762) (PMID:25793993) (PMCID:PMC4368801)

Abstract

The basic reproductive number (R₀) and the distribution of the serial interval (SI) are often used to quantify transmission during an infectious disease outbreak. In this paper, we present estimates of R₀ and SI from the 2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong and Singapore, and the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in South Africa using methods that expand upon an existing Bayesian framework. This expanded framework allows for the incorporation of additional information, such as contact tracing or household data, through prior distributions. The results for the R₀ and the SI from the influenza outbreak in South Africa were similar regardless of the prior information (R0 = 1.36-1.46, μ = 2.0-2.7, μ = mean of the SI). The estimates of R₀ and μ for the SARS outbreak ranged from 2.0-4.4 and 7.4-11.3, respectively, and were shown to vary depending on the use of contact tracing data. The impact of the contact tracing data was likely due to the small number of SARS cases relative to the size of the contact tracing sample.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: LFW was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (Grant U54GM088558).
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Gupta, Professor Mayetri
• Authors: Moser, C. B., Gupta, M., Archer, B. N., and White, L. F.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
• Journal Name: PLoS ONE
• Publisher: Public Library of Science
• ISSN: 1932-6203
• ISSN (Online): 1932-6203
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2015 The Authors
• First Published: First published in PLoS ONE 10(3): e0118762
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License