Host-pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies

Streicker, D. , Winternitz, J. C., Satterfiled, D. A., Condori-Condori, R. E., Broos, A., Tello, C., Recuenco, S., Velasco-Villa, A., Altizer, S. and Valderrama, W. (2016) Host-pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(39), pp. 10926-10931. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1606587113) (PMID:27621441) (PMCID:PMC5047211)

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Abstract

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Streicker, Dr Daniel and Broos, Ms Alice
Authors: Streicker, D., Winternitz, J. C., Satterfiled, D. A., Condori-Condori, R. E., Broos, A., Tello, C., Recuenco, S., Velasco-Villa, A., Altizer, S., and Valderrama, W.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection Immunity and Inflammation
Journal Name:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Publisher:National Academy of Sciences
ISSN:0027-8424
ISSN (Online):0027-8424
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2016 National Academy of Sciences
First Published:First published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(39):10926-10931
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
634192Managing viral emergence at the interface of bats and livestockDaniel StreickerWellcome Trust (WELLCOME)102507/Z/13/ZRI BIODIVERSITY ANIMAL HEALTH & COMPMED