Transmission or within-host dynamics driving pulses of zoonotic viruses in reservoir-host populations

Plowright, R. K., Peel, A. J., Streicker, D. , Gilbert, A. T., McCallum, H., Wood, J., Baker, M. B. and Restif, O. (2016) Transmission or within-host dynamics driving pulses of zoonotic viruses in reservoir-host populations. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 10(8), e0004796. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004796) (PMID:27489944) (PMCID:PMC4973921)

Abstract

Progress in combatting zoonoses that emerge from wildlife is often constrained by limited knowledge of the biology of pathogens within reservoir hosts. We focus on the host–pathogen dynamics of four emerging viruses associated with bats: Hendra, Nipah, Ebola, and Marburg viruses. Spillover of bat infections to humans and domestic animals often coincides with pulses of viral excretion within bat populations, but the mechanisms driving such pulses are unclear. Three hypotheses dominate current research on these emerging bat infections. First, pulses of viral excretion could reflect seasonal epidemic cycles driven by natural variations in population densities and contact rates among hosts. If lifelong immunity follows recovery, viruses may disappear locally but persist globally through migration; in either case, new outbreaks occur once births replenish the susceptible pool. Second, epidemic cycles could be the result of waning immunity within bats, allowing local circulation of viruses through oscillating herd immunity. Third, pulses could be generated by episodic shedding from persistently infected bats through a combination of physiological and ecological factors. The three scenarios can yield similar patterns in epidemiological surveys, but strategies to predict or manage spillover risk resulting from each scenario will be different. We outline an agenda for research on viruses emerging from bats that would allow for differentiation among the scenarios and inform development of evidence-based interventions to limit threats to human and animal health. These concepts and methods are applicable to a wide range of pathogens that affect humans, domestic animals, and wildlife.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This work was supported by the Commonwealth of Australia, the State of New South Wales, and the State of Queensland under the National Hendra Virus Research Program, awarded through the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (RIRDC); the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Science and Technology Directorate (United States of America Department of Homeland Security); and the Fogarty International Center (National Institutes of Health). RKP was supported by National Institutes of Health IDeA Program grants P20GM103474 and P30GM110732, P. Thye, and Montana University System Research Initiative 51040-MUSRI2015-03. OR was supported by a University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society (grant UF120164). AJP was supported by RIRDC and a Queensland Government Accelerate Fellowship grant. DGS was supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant number 102507/Z/13/Z). JW is supported by the Alborada Trust and the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976). MLB was supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT110100234). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Streicker, Professor Daniel
• Authors: Plowright, R. K., Peel, A. J., Streicker, D., Gilbert, A. T., McCallum, H., Wood, J., Baker, M. B., and Restif, O.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
• Journal Name: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
• Publisher: Public Library of Science
• ISSN: 1935-2727
• ISSN (Online): 1935-2735
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2016 The Authors
• First Published: First published in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases: 10(8): e0004796, 04 August 2016.
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under creative commons license

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
63419	2	Managing viral emergence at the interface of bats and livestock	Daniel Streicker	Wellcome Trust (WELLCOME)	102507/Z/13/Z	RI BIODIVERSITY ANIMAL HEALTH & COMPMED