Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies

Ferguson, E. , Hampson, K. , Cleaveland, S. , Consunji, R., Deray, R., Friar, J., Haydon, D. T. , Jimenez, J., Pancipane, M. and Townsend, S. E. (2015) Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies. Scientific Reports, 5, 18232. (doi:10.1038/srep18232) (PMID:26667267) (PMCID:PMC4678884)

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Abstract

Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010–2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Cleaveland, Professor Sarah and Townsend, Dr Sunny and Haydon, Professor Daniel and Friar, Mr John and Hampson, Dr Katie and Ferguson, Miss Elaine
Authors: Ferguson, E., Hampson, K., Cleaveland, S., Consunji, R., Deray, R., Friar, J., Haydon, D. T., Jimenez, J., Pancipane, M., and Townsend, S. E.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
Journal Name:Scientific Reports
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:2045-2322
ISSN (Online):2045-2322
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2015 The Authors
First Published:First published in Scientific Report 5:18232
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
569041Hierarchical epidemiology: the spread and persistence of infectious diseases in complex landscapesKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOME)095787/Z/11/ZRI BIODIVERSITY ANIMAL HEALTH & COMPMED
508041Understanding how a complex intervention works: designing large-scale vaccination programsDaniel HaydonMedical Research Council (MRC)G0901135/91914RI BIODIVERSITY ANIMAL HEALTH & COMPMED