Ferguson, E. , Hampson, K. , Cleaveland, S. , Consunji, R., Deray, R., Friar, J., Haydon, D. T. , Jimenez, J., Pancipane, M. and Townsend, S. E. (2015) Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies. Scientific Reports, 5, 18232. (doi: 10.1038/srep18232) (PMID:26667267) (PMCID:PMC4678884)
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Abstract
Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010–2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Cleaveland, Professor Sarah and Townsend, Dr Sunny and Haydon, Professor Daniel and Friar, Mr John and Hampson, Professor Katie and Ferguson, Dr Elaine |
| Authors: | Ferguson, E., Hampson, K., Cleaveland, S., Consunji, R., Deray, R., Friar, J., Haydon, D. T., Jimenez, J., Pancipane, M., and Townsend, S. E. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine |
| Journal Name: | Scientific Reports |
| Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| ISSN (Online): | 2045-2322 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2015 The Authors |
| First Published: | First published in Scientific Report 5:18232 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
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