Letting the Voters Decide: Government Referendums and the Management of Risk

Lundberg, T. C. and Miller, R. (2014) Letting the Voters Decide: Government Referendums and the Management of Risk. Working Paper. Máster en Democracia y Gobierno, Departamento de Ciencia Política y Relaciones Internacionales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid.

Abstract

Despite their attendant risks, referendums are normally initiated by governments with a view to achieving the results those same governments want. But why risk a referendum that might yield a result the government does not want, particularly when there are potentially safer options for resolving issues of constitutional importance, such as the normal legislative process? This paper will propose a theoretical framework that addresses the questions of why governments initiate referendums they could potentially lose, how elite and mass opinion plays out during the resulting debates, and how the referendums’ sponsors handle defeat. Our case studies are drawn from voter responses to attempts to change the electoral system. In all three government-initiated referendums in New Zealand (1992, 1993 and 2011), the outcomes were unwanted by the governing elites, and while the result of the United Kingdom electoral referendum of 2010 was welcomed by the Conservative Party, its decision on the options to put before the British public reflected a desire to minimise risk. The paper will conclude with an analysis of the relevance of our case studies to the Scottish independence referendum and Prime Minster David Cameron’s proposed United Kingdom referendum on continued membership of the European Union.

• Item Type: Research Reports or Papers (Working Paper)
• Status: Published
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Lundberg, Dr Thomas
• Authors: Lundberg, T. C., and Miller, R.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
• Publisher: Máster en Democracia y Gobierno, Departamento de Ciencia Política y Relaciones Internacionales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid