Development and validation of a cost-utility model for Type 1 diabetes mellitus

Wolowacz, S., Pearson, I., Shannon, P., Chubb, B., Gundgaard, J., Davies, M. and Briggs, A. (2015) Development and validation of a cost-utility model for Type 1 diabetes mellitus. Diabetic Medicine, 32(8), pp. 1023-1035. (doi:10.1111/dme.12663) (PMID:25484028)

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Abstract

Aims: To develop a health economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new interventions for Type 1 diabetes mellitus by their effects on long-term complications (measured through mean HbA1c) while capturing the impact of treatment on hypoglycaemic events. Methods: Through a systematic review, we identified complications associated with Type 1 diabetes mellitus and data describing the long-term incidence of these complications. An individual patient simulation model was developed and included the following complications: cardiovascular disease, peripheral neuropathy, microalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease, proliferative retinopathy, ketoacidosis, cataract, hypoglycemia and adverse birth outcomes. Risk equations were developed from published cumulative incidence data and hazard ratios for the effect of HbA1c, age and duration of diabetes. We validated the model by comparing model predictions with observed outcomes from studies used to build the model (internal validation) and from other published data (external validation). We performed illustrative analyses for typical patient cohorts and a hypothetical intervention. Results: Model predictions were within 2% of expected values in the internal validation and within 8% of observed values in the external validation (percentages represent absolute differences in the cumulative incidence). Conclusions: The model utilized high-quality, recent data specific to people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus. In the model validation, results deviated less than 8% from expected values.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Briggs, Professor Andrew
Authors: Wolowacz, S., Pearson, I., Shannon, P., Chubb, B., Gundgaard, J., Davies, M., and Briggs, A.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment
Journal Name:Diabetic Medicine
Publisher:John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
ISSN:0742-3071
ISSN (Online):1464-5491
Published Online:13 February 2015
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2015 Wiley
First Published:First published in Diabetic Medicine 32(8):102.-1035
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher

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