Combining exchange rate forecasts: what is the optimal consensus measure?

MacDonald, R. and Marsh, I. W. (1994) Combining exchange rate forecasts: what is the optimal consensus measure? International Journal of Forecasting, 13(3), pp. 313-332. (doi:10.1002/for.3980130306)

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Abstract

In this paper a high-quality disaggregate database is utilized to examine whether individual forecasters produce efficient exchange rate predictions and also if the properties of the forecasts change when they are combined. The paper links a number of themes in the exchange rate literature and examines various methods of forecast combination. It is demonstrated, inter alia, that some forecasters are better than others, but that most are not as good as a naive no-change prediction. Combining forecasts adds to the accuracy of the predictions, but the gains mainly reflect the removal of systematic and unstable bias.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:MacDonald, Professor Ronald
Authors: MacDonald, R., and Marsh, I. W.
College/School:College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics
Journal Name:International Journal of Forecasting
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:0169-2070
ISSN (Online):1872-8200

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