Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences

MacDonald, R. and Marsh, I. W. (1996) Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences. Journal of International Money and Finance, 15(5), pp. 665-685. (doi: 10.1016/0261-5606(96)00030-7)

Abstract

Using a disaggregated international survey database we demonstrate that foreign exchange forecasters hold heterogeneous expectations. We find that a major cause of these differences of opinion is the idiosyncratic interpretation of widely available information, and that this heterogeneity translates into economically meaningful differences in forecast accuracy. Finally, we show that such disagreements are key variables in determining market trading volume.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: MacDonald, Professor Ronald
• Authors: MacDonald, R., and Marsh, I. W.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics
• Journal Name: Journal of International Money and Finance
• Publisher: Elsevier Ltd.
• ISSN: 0261-5606
• ISSN (Online): 1873-0639