Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease

Di Angelantonio, E. et al. (2014) Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, 311(12), pp. 1225-1233. (doi: 10.1001/jama.2014.1873) (PMID:24668104) (PMCID:PMC4386007)

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mportance  The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain.

Objective  To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants  Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294 998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment.

Main Outcomes and Measures  Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥7.5%) risk.

Results  During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20 840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13 237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (−0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels.

Conclusions and Relevance  In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Ford, Professor Ian and Sattar, Professor Naveed
Authors: Di Angelantonio, E., Gao, P., Khan, H., Butterworth, A. S., Wormser, D., Kaptoge, S., Kondapally Seshasai, S. R., Thompson, A., Sarwar, N., Willeit, P., Ridker, P. M., Barr, E. L.M., Khaw, K.-T., Psaty, B. M., Brenner, H., Balkau, B., Dekker, J. M., Lawlor, D. A., Daimon, M., Willeit, J., Njølstad, I., Nissinen, A., Brunner, E. J., Kuller, L. H., Price, J. F., Sundström, J., Knuiman, M. W., Feskens, E. J.M., Verschuren, W. M.M., Wald, N., Bakker, S. J.L., Whincup, P. H., Ford, I., Goldbourt, U., Gómez-de-la-Cámara, A., Gallacher, J., Simons, L. A., Rosengren, A., Sutherland, S. E., Björkelund, C., Blazer, D. G., Wassertheil-Smoller, S., Onat, A., Marín Ibañez, A., Casiglia, E., Jukema, J. W., Simpson, L. M., Giampaoli, S., Nordestgaard, B. G., Selmer, R., Wennberg, P., Kauhanen, J., Salonen, J. T., Dankner, R., Barrett-Connor, E., Kavousi, M., Gudnason, V., Evans, D., Wallace, R. B., Cushman, M., D’Agostino, R. B., Umans, J. G., Kiyohara, Y., Nakagawa, H., Sato, S., Gillum, R. F., Folsom, A. R., van der Schouw, Y. T., Moons, K. G., Griffin, S. J., Sattar, N., Wareham, N. J., Selvin, E., Thompson, S. G., and Danesh, J.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Robertson Centre
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences
Journal Name:JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association
Publisher:American Medical Association
ISSN (Online):1538-3598

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