Minton, J. (2015) An Indirect Approach to Mapping Population Dynamics in Europe, and Why this Matters for Measuring Trends in Population Health. ScHARR Seminar Series, University of Sheffield, 14 Apr 2015.
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Abstract
People within the European Union (EU) are free to move between countries in search of work and other opportunities. In recent years, particularly since 2004, the number of nations included in the EU has expanded from six to 28 members, including many Eastern European nations that were historically poorer than Western European nations. Could this expansion be something public health researchers should be concerned about, because more migratory populations, especially between national borders, may be harder to count? Using shaded contour plots (SCPs), a form of high density data visualisation, we explore large statistical maps of population count discrepancies, seeing whether large scale population flows in the last decade have made head counts less reliable. We identify large population count discrepancies in the mid 2000s in younger adults, consistent with the hypothesis that more migratory populations are harder to enumerate and so more likely to be double counted. Without accurate denominators, rates become unreliable, and so tracking public health trends over time becomes problematic. We highlight this problem by showing that, taken at face values, the groups of people most likely to be miscounted also seem to have experienced an unprecedented drop in mortality risk. This finding seems ‘too good to be true’, and shows why accurately counting heads can be a major health research headache.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item |
|---|---|
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | No |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Minton, Dr Jonathan |
| Authors: | Minton, J. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| College/School: | College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Urban Studies |
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