Forecasting of global horizontal irradiance by exponential smoothing, using decompositions

Yang, D., Sharma, V., Ye, Z., Lim, L. H. I., Zhao, L. and Aryaputera, A. W. (2015) Forecasting of global horizontal irradiance by exponential smoothing, using decompositions. Energy, 81, pp. 111-119. (doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.082)

[img]
Preview
Text
104385.pdf - Accepted Version

493kB

Abstract

Time series methods are frequently used in solar irradiance forecasting when two dimensional cloud information provided by satellite or sky camera is unavailable. ETS (exponential smoothing) has received extensive attention in the recent years since the invention of its state space formulation. In this work, we combine these models with knowledge based heuristic time series decomposition methods to improve the forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.

In particular, three decomposition methods are proposed. The first method implements an additive seasonal-trend decomposition as a preprocessing technique prior to ETS. This can reduce the state space thus improve the computational efficiency. The second method decomposes the GHI (global horizontal irradiance) time series into a direct component and a diffuse component. These two components are used as forecasting model inputs separately; and their corresponding results are recombined via the closure equation to obtain the GHI forecasts. In the third method, the time series of the cloud cover index is considered. ETS is applied to the cloud cover time series to obtain the cloud cover forecast thus the forecast GHI through polynomial regressions. The results show that the third method performs the best among three methods and all proposed methods outperform the persistence models.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Lim, Dr Li Hong Idris
Authors: Yang, D., Sharma, V., Ye, Z., Lim, L. H. I., Zhao, L., and Aryaputera, A. W.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Electronics and Nanoscale Engineering
Journal Name:Energy
Publisher:Elsevier Ltd.
ISSN:0360-5442
ISSN (Online):0360-5442
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
First Published:First published in Energy
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.

University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record