An investigation of systemic stress and interdependencies within the Eurozone and Euro Area countries

MacDonald, R. , Sogiakas, V. and Tsopanakis, A. (2015) An investigation of systemic stress and interdependencies within the Eurozone and Euro Area countries. Economic Modelling, 48, pp. 52-69. (doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.023)

Abstract

One of the most challenging issues that economists are dealing with is the investigation of the financial turmoil in Eurozone economies. Particularly, the issue of exposing the potential crisis transmission channels has attracted considerable interest. Aiming to contribute to this literature, we construct financial stress indices on a country level and explore further the potential inter-reactions between the root causes of systemic risk. The country-specific index consists of a wide number of series drawn from the money, equity and bond markets, as well as from the banking sector of each Eurozone country. A Euro Area stress index is also provided, exploring the evolution of financial conditions for this group of countries. The investigation of the potential transmission channels is implemented through a multivariate analysis and the corresponding impulse responses' dynamics. The empirical findings suggest that countries are mostly responsive to their own financial shocks, while a degree of regionalism is also evident. That is, the peripheral countries are more susceptible to their financial stress, while the same holds for the core Eurozone countries. Additionally, in contrast to common wisdom, financial conditions in Greece and Portugal do not seem to affect the rest of the Euro Area, at least in the degree that Italy and Ireland do. These results are consistent under alternative model and sample specifications.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: MacDonald, Professor Ronald and Sogiakas, Dr Vasilios
• Authors: MacDonald, R., Sogiakas, V., and Tsopanakis, A.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics
• Journal Name: Economic Modelling
• Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
• ISSN: 0264-9993
• ISSN (Online): 1873-6122